Thursday, November 29, 2012

Economic madness in housing policy

The economic damage caused by these crazy policies is what needs to be hammered home: HughP has been very focussed on the 'broken-record' approach and it is gradually seeping through. Perhaps. Let's tabulate the said damage: - Median multiples in perma-unaffordable zone - Acquiescence in a materials supply cartel - Lack of nation-wide type approvals (for e.g. factory-built dwellings) - consents are Still a local-authority issue. Welcome to the ineptocracy! - Complete absence of time-money rules in the entire consents etc processes including the RMA. Quick fix would be to adopt current IRD rules - just try missing a tax payment and see what happens! - Disenfranchisement and disengagement of young citizens shut out of the housing market - Consultants, lawyers, engineers, insurers all feasting on the corpse of what passes for the development industry - 100% pure deadweight - Regulation of everything that is an input to the industry - if only the synthetic-cannabis rules could apply (use it until sufficient numbers of addled users clog up the A&E's of the nation, then stroke chin and say ' why, something's Gotter be Done) - Granting untaxed capital windfalls to landowners by continuing to squiggle on maps - Acquiescing on land-banking - Transmission of this economic malaise (as it applies to new-house pricing) throughout the housing market, as existing-home sellers who wish to buy new at roughly the same level of amenity, need to sell at near the same price (and trouser the CG, mais naturellement, if they play it right) Play this record at Every Opportunity, and don't forget that it Cannot be fixed by voting in a new lot of faces at either national or local government levels. It's a classic cluster-f**k. This stuff is systemic......

Tribes...

A village/tribe (direct descendants of the monkey clans - see 'Before the Dawn' - Nicolas Wade) may well be the default setting if we have to hit the factory reset button. But consider the losses in this highly sustainable way of living: •kiss goodbye to most present rights, including personal freedoms and gender equality. Tribes are ruled by The Big Man (note that gender) and if'n yer not in with The Man's crew, (like, wearing the wrong colour cap down Main Street) you'll shortly find yerself on a Ship of Fools (on a Good Day) or pegged out on the local beach at low tide (on a Bad Day). •kiss goodbye to most scale enterprise: mining, metals, the shaping thereof etc. Enterprises and capitalism depend on the utmost trust between total strangers, and tribes/clans do not take kindly to strangers (that's part of their core definition..,.) •kiss goodbye to cities and hence to the clustering and innovation thereby made possible: the various Renaissances that have taken place over the centuries have arisen from the cross-fertilisations of (quelle horreur!) Different Types Mingling: tribes don't take well to such uncontrolled goings-on. The genius of the Anglosphere is that we invented portable, discretionary (choose your own) tribes via countless associations, enterprises, and ventures, after millenia of imposed tribes via blood, locality, religion etc. The Enlightenment did for all that. Mind you, the re-tribalisation of the world has been long predicted, and Blut und Boden still has a visceral appeal to the revanchists amongst us....

Thursday, November 22, 2012

A common tater complains about Housing Material Costs

Oh, it gets better, Boatman. •Duopoly in materials (see the Productivity Commish on this) •Massive front-loading of fees on the land by Rapacious Local Governments who have Four Wellbeings to house and feed •Cheap credit, which fuels the fire •Licensing of every tradie, tool, and anyone silly enough to consider a new build •Planning which generates an unearned and untaxed capital gain (typically 10x rural land price) as soon as yer draw that MUL squiggle on a map •Land banking (in the reasonable expectation of said CG) by Them with Knowledge and Insight (and a tame Planner or three on the Inside) •Elfin Safety, which typically adds 30-50% to the raw cost of e.g. a roofing or other at-height job (scaffolding, railing, harnessing, it's a Long List) •Inspections and Engineering Certification, which can easily exceed the raw materials cost by a wide margin •And never, ever forget the time value of money, throughout this ponderous process. Recall that the 'Mericans built the Empire State in 18 months. Yer'd be very lucky to get a Notified Resource Consent through in that time, and all the while the interest costs tick up, your Banker smiles at the interest revenue stream (or Frowns when yer miss the payment), and the Gumnuts of the world reject yer Permit Application for the 13th time because you haven't Detailed that there Joint in the Gubbinses by the Roof Thatch, which is another three-week go-around with your Engineer not ter mention his Fees. And did I mention that the Banker's grin is getting wider? •Plus (the icing on the cake, economical dead-weight-wise, ht PhilBest) is that all this cost-loading then transmits osmotically throughout the entire housing market, enrichening (and without being taxed on the CG generated) every existing houseowner. Because if'n she sells, and buys new, she'll haveta pay all of the above plus the agent's commission on the sale, to get an equivalent place. Universal pricing signal! Perfection, ain't it? Tip all these ingredients into a supply-starved Housing Context, mix 'em together, and Watch Them Prices Explode! And, like getting Milk from a Latte, or populating an Aquarium from Chowder, un-Mixing this sorry mess is a trifle, shall we say - challenging!