Muddling through the Transition

Opening up means asking - to who, under what conditions. Most comments are simply tribal reflexive so far: red/blue, prepper/unprepared, subsistence existence/urban luxury, quasi-religious incantationists/full-on science. None of that is frankly very useful.

Some heretical thoughts:

• We know what we can Export but there's not much notion of How long-term. If FF is goneburger or too unstable, we may need to swallow our principles and think about a nuclear-propelled shipping service (maybe shared with Oz, which has plenty of U). Air freight may be a stop-gap but obviously cannot handle thousands of tonnes a week....and electric planes are a science fiction proposition for long-haul. City-hops, maybe.
• We need plenty of imports of raw materials or finished goods we simply cannot easily get ourselves: most metals, cotton, rice, sugar are examples of the former; chips, capacitors, tractors, trucks, machine tools, locomotives of the latter. Again, Oz is the obvious partner here.
• Few commenters including Goldsmith of the article and many on this august site, have much idea about how to preserve social cohesion and at the same time have some progress towards a new configuration during the transition that is a'comin' down the pike. It's simply ridiculous to expect the laid-off media types to 'learn to code', the tourist-trap woikers to light out for the nearest subsistence farm, the teeming masses of South Auckland and Northland to be Educated quickly or value-added enough to become SME entrepreneurs, the youngsters in the meshes of what passes for Education to look forward to - well - anything much in their fondly hoped-for future. We'll frankly be lucky to see a fraction of any of this, and disconnection does tend to lead to social unrest if history is any guide. Yet cohere, somehow, we must.
• No-one has much of a way through any of this. The talking-down we endure from the Covid Crew is one pole to be avoided, as are the Sermons from the Mount from those convinced that the way that works for their tiny fiefdom, is The Way, the Truth and the Life we must henceforth all Obey, at the other pole. As always, muddling through some sort of emergent middle is what we'll end up doing, assuming the centre holds. If it doesn't, look out below. In these circumstances, philosophers are far more useful than the Experts and the Zealots. Leonard Cohen became an advocate for 'Love is the only engine of survival' in his songs and life, and Alain de Botton, via a long series of books about How to Live in our fractured times, are two I recommend.

We should always demand that local government runs the ruler across all spending - article rejoinder

As a former (pre-1989, so old-world, prudent-rural-Council) LG Treasurer (no fancy CFO titles back then) I have been quietly appalled at the way in which staff have usurped Councillors.

Part is structural: Councils employ a CEO, who then employs all other staff. So there's an instant disconnect. Councillors tend to be actively discouraged from interacting with staff ('Policy, not execution', 'Governance, not Management' tend to be the shibboleths).

Part is the 'argument from authority' - a fallacy which nevertheless traps many a Councillor into a place whence no real push-back against even plainly loopy staff initiatives is possible.

Part is Council groupthink, especially when essentially tribal voting blocks have propelled 'their' councillors into the fray and proceed as if the 'others' are anathematized.

And part is the huge information and power disparity between staff, and the councillors, committees and especially the public. Taking on City Hall is a losing proposition, so most simply don't bother.

Staff attitudes to councillors can be summed up as 'vote-hungry show ponies around a very distant table'. Who can be and thus all too often are ignored. Calling for 'a staff report' is a recipe for getting handed 'what the staff always wanted', but suitably obfuscated so as to survive the limp surveillance of Der Public, and the occasional inquisition from the latest unpaid intern reporter in a local tabloid.

Against this background, and the 'four well-beings' power of general competence (Sec 10(2) LG Act 2002) it is only to be expected that there is little to no hope of effectively managing increases in Council spend, let alone reducing it. Bureaucracies are remunerated by numbers of staff managed - a built-in growth incentive. It simply hasn't occurred to any of them that there might be Limits to Growth. Or that (as in the older models) significant pools of expertise lie outside the staff echelons, can be tapped for free via committees and co-options, and can thus serve the dual purposes of keeping community connections, and deepening the intellectual horsepower brought to discussions.

So the article's fond hope that "We should always demand that local government runs the ruler across all spending" is quite impracticable, and has been increasingly so for three decades. We are all strapped to the Rates Rocket, every year the uplift increases, and few of us have any trust left in the edifice it's funding.

Maybe the WuHuFlu might be a circuit-breaker in this dismal progression. Maybe the engineers and other unexcitable types on staff might club together and persuade the Event Managers, Tourism Promoters, Community Engagement Fluffballs, and all the rest of the 'Social and Cultural Well-being' parasites, to gracefully yield their comfortable, secure and marginally useful positions in order to fund the unexciting requirements like sewer replacements, well-head securing, bridge strengthening, and public building earthquake-hardening.

But I wouldn't bet the rating tax base on That happening in my remaining lifetime.....

As with the DHB's I think there may well be a Great Reset of the number and distribution of authorities - Councils, Regional's etc. It's simply nuts to have small authorities, each with their own fiercely guarded C-suite, systems, Plans etc - all somewhat inconsistent with each other (District Plans....) - all claiming to be Diffrunt, Speshull, and thus entitled to defend their fiefdoms until Kingdom Come. Whereas in the commercial space, large verticals and franchises tend to have a single shared or multi-tenanted set of systems, extensive supply-chain links via EDI, superb logistics etc. I did some work for a well-known retailer a decade ago, and at that stage, they were doing a weekly forecast of sales for every SKU (around 10,000) in every product category across 100 stores, 3 countries and 3 currencies, complete with expected delivery dates from logistics, landed costs, margin, and local RRP. Councils and DHB's may be able to approach this sort of performance in the best examples, but I suspect the majority are still emailing Excel workbooks around.

One of the saddest aspects of the post-1989 TLA environment is the complete shutting-out of ordinary folks from the business of maintaining their own tiny pieces of the puzzle. In a former life, as well as being a Councillor on the Otautau (pop 3,000) Town Council, I was on the roster of volunteers who ran the local swimming pool. As a County Treasurer, I attended numerous meetings of committees for Water Races, Reserves, Halls as well as the usual Council committees and sub-committees. These all served the dual purpose I outlined above: keeping strong roots in the communities they served, and adding on-the-ground expertise and voices. Nothing like this now exists, and one obvious result is the complete disconnect between the behemoth Councils and the populations they serve. It doesn't take degrees in horticulture to maintain a local garden, keep a local reserve mowed, trees trimmed etc. 

Time for a re-connection.

Green's High-Speed Rail dreams

Well, the Greens have come up with a $9 billion plan to electrify the main trunks (NI plus SI) at least around the major cities and get high-speed (160km/hr), high-frequency-of-service trains running.

At an electrification cost per km of around $USD10m/km, that $NZD9B will extend electrification for 450 km at a USD/NZD rate of 0.50.

But I suspect the proposal has at least five deep flaws:

1. 1 - To let pax rail run in two directions, double-tracking is needed. That's probably north of $50m/km. Christchurch is the testbed here: there's no double-tracking, few passing sidings, no stations, no pax-capable signalling, and so on. Even if a slew of passing sidings is posited, that's gonna reduce that 160km/hr max speed to maybe a 60-80km/hr average. Not that much different to a bus or car. Suppose (say) a 15min frequency for three hours twice a day, over a 70km single trip at 70km/hr, and assuming instant turnarounds, that needs four trains per direction per hour on that trip. That's three or four crossings if single-track for the returning units.
2. 
   
3. 2 - Stations, signalling, ticketing, and meshing with last-mile services. No use turning up at the nearest station to your workplace (like Christchurch Airport freight ops) and finding you have 8-10km still to go and no last-mile PT. All this stuff is expensive, and uncosted, I suspect.
4. 
   

3 - Electrification is absent in the middle third of the NI, and absent from the SI except for heritage stuff through the Arthur's Pass tunnel. By no coincidence, these are the very parts that are toughest to electrify at all: tunnels, bridges, tight curves, high (for rail) gradients). The cost/km is likely to be an order of magnitude higher in these areas.

1. 
   
2. 4 - Where is the power to come from? A single source of power (overhead catenaries, substations) is vulnerable to outages which stop the entire block section - er- in its tracks. And, especially in the NI, there just isn't the spare capacity to impose significantly higher loads: most daytime top-up power comes from SI hydro. Perhaps Tiwai closure is part of the Green's assumptions. But there's still no way to get That power from the deep south to Auckland without expensive line duplication or upgrades (last estimate was north of 0.5B and that was some time ago).
3. 
   
4. 5 - Patronage in those shiny new commuter trains. It's all very well creating them, but who is actually going to use (say) a Hamilton-Auckland route, and in sufficient numbers? The sectors that can't or won't include tradies, the elderly, the very young, the WuFluFearFull, the poor and the unemployed. That's a big chunk of potential patrons.

Can't see it going anywhere but Off the Rails......

The 'economy' is not a Machine, but an Anthill (sort of)

A common failing is to think of the economy as a machine, which is subject to controls - levers and dials - which can be twiddled or pulled with well-understood results.

It simply isn't. What we characterize as an 'economy' is the aggregate result of millions of transactions between individuals, firms, 'little platoons' (the plethora of voluntary and uncommanded associations that folks generate), Governments, localities, resources, and other countries.

While some of this is counted, regulated and observable, much isn't. Ideas, innovation, tinkering, and thinking have generated most prosperity that we now enjoy, and much of That went completely unrecognised until it erupted (disrupted?) into the counted 'economy'.

That also makes a nonsense of the notion that 'economies can be re-constructed' as though they are a building, a dam, or an object with a BOM. To the extent that analogies work, economies are closer to an anthill (cubed) than to a machine. And there's no recipe for 'constructing an anthill' because there's no central intelligence, let alone central planning, involved. There's a bunch of ants....This is neatly laid out in Steven Johnson's 'Emergence'.

So Treasury and the other entrail-readers have no way of seeing or modelling aspects such as:

1. The possibility that older, skilled workers and business owners simply take a very long or permanent sabbatical. They've gotten used to a world where suddenly they are not beholden to customers, IRD, MBIE, Worksafe, TLA's and all the other overheads, and they may have discovered that they quite like it. That puts quite a dent in aspects like apprenticeships (who will mentor 'em?), productivity, niche products or raw materials, and other activities that are deep down in the BOM.
2. The possibility that actually-but-not-immediately-essential services or businesses have been so damaged that they won't re-start, or are sold on at fire-sale prices to new owners who take years to achieve the same levels of output or productivity. Either way, there's a big dip in the offing.

• Part of any reconfiguration (itself a bottom-up process) will lie in choice of trading partners. China has shat in its own nest via deceit, delays and imperial moves; so there will be a tense time as NZ still exports food to them, while at the same time gently disengages imports to some extent, and that as the aggregate choices of thousands of individuals and businesses rather than Gubmint fiat.

A lot of water to go under This bridge. Final word from Richard Fernandez: the most likely result of all of this will be systems run for the benefit of their componentry, rather than for the maximal optimisation overall. And globalism-compatible, not globalism-dependent. The title: Planning the Great Escape from House Arrest, and from Communist China.

Councils, CEO and Staff - once again, I wearily explain their relationships

This was a response to a comment which confessed that 'As voters we are failing'.  My reply:  No, don't be too hard on yourself (and by extension, on the rest of us Ratepayers strapped to this Rates Rocket).

• Voters only vote for Councillors.
• Councillors have only one Employee - the CEO.
• The CEO employs everyone else.

So all staff under the CEO actually are insulated totally from the Councillors. To staff, Councillors are a set of buffoons around a very distant table.

So staff are perfectly free to pursue their own aims and objectives and higher budgets, to the extent that these fly under the CEO's radar. And render 'reports' up through the CEO to the Council which lead to largely pre-determined policy positions which, quelle surprise, support those very same aims, objectives, and those safe and comfortable staff lives......

Autarky - flavour of the 2020's?

Let's draw out some Consequences of the 'all for it' themes - all varieties of autarky - a common characteristic of medieval economies:

1. No more foreign idiots = between 50 and 75% of the tourism industry, employing 400K workers, is toast. Add 'em to the welfare rolls or retrain 'em - all Gubmint cost, paid for by You Know Who.
2. No Importing Australian produce = no metals (Li, Cu, Fe, and the rare earths being prospected at Dubbo), so kiss goodbye to solar panels, EV's and Big Batteries. As for wheat, well, Oz grows most of the hard wheat used in our bread.
3. No more Foreign-owned firms.  But these include every Car, Machinery, Household Appliance manufacturer, amongst many others, so good luck when your tractor goes into Limp Mode in the middle of harvest and the firms have Departed our fair isles.
4. Foreign minimum wage temporary work visa workers go home - and are replaced by automation, manufactured either offshore, by foreign-owned firms here, or local firms using fairly much exclusively foreign-made parts. We seem, unaccountably, not to have chip fabs or bearing factories....
5. Dairy pays for its alleged externalities - via the plethora of New Taxes sure to come our way, and what does that do to the prices of dairy products locally? So who pays? Check a mirror. And who is Excluded because of high prices? The poor and children.

Autarky seems to be flavour of the month. Especially to commenters who clearly haven't Thought it Through.....

Covid and Councils

Well, we're not gonna need Conference Centres for a while either. And as several Councils have declared themselves to be in a Climate Emergency, they won't be needing:

1. those divvies from the airport companies (who just facilitate Nasty Emissions)
2. Tourism and business development agencies (neither is gonna come roaring back in the next year or three, so just fire 'em all)
3. Rates penalties set at 10% (when fer gosh sakes, even IRD's UOMI is 8.35% and even that's usurious when OCR is 0.25%)
4. Festivals, buskers, events and other Covid-Cluster-Generators
5. 4WD's and SUV's for Council staff who never get off the seal - buy 'em e-bikes with trailers

This Emergency could turn out to be Quite the Tipping-point for Councils....bring popcorn.

Define 'essential'

The Gubmint's definition of 'essential services' (tucked inside the Covid19 Levels blurb here) includes the airy statement 'including their supply chains'.

This raises the eternal question of exactly what constitutes 'essential' parts of a 'supply chain'.

E.g. the 3-waters functions of TLA's are certainly Essential. But suppose a water main blows (we've had four instances in our street over the space of 18 months). That'll need a digger, a tip-truck at minimum. One of them blows a hydraulic hose. That needs the Hose Guy to roll his truck and fix it. So he's Essential too. The Hose Guy gets a flattie on the way to or from the fix, that needs the Tyre Guy to either roll his truck, or stay open. So the Tyre Guy's Essential too.

You can by now discern where this is going. Just how far down the 'Supply Chain'/Bill of Materials does the Essential designation flow? And how to give certainty to the Hose, Tyre, Parts, Mechanics etc firms as to how Essential they are?

The Reverse-Bill-of-Materials conundrum

This is a reverse-bill-of-materials moment for the economy. A BOM is usually intended to show what one needs to Build something, and often a BOM is largely composed of many 'kits' - sub-assemblies, and that recursion can go many layers down to arrive at the ultimate content. That's what makes such a nonsense of trying to, for example, derive a 'carbon footprint' for a finished product of any complexity - too many ultimate components and thus far too many assumptions needed.

A dis-assembling economy. OTOH, crucially has no BOM's which specify the componentry which will ultimately be affected. So the unravelling of entire sectors (events, festivals, tourism) is inherently unable to be predicted in the precision needed to direct remediable action or arrange substitutions.

That's what makes this whole thing so not-amenable to ordinary economic modelling. Because BOM's only work during Assembly, not for Demolition. Hence the headless-chicken circling seen from prognosticators of all stripes, and from not a few commenters right here on Interest.....

As a thought experiment, imagine an AirNZ engineer, a barista, and an RE salesbot (sorry, Personage). 

1. The engineer has two mortgages, two cars on HP, an overdraft and significant CC debt, but owns two residential rentals and is now jobless. 
2. The barista has zero mortgage and moderate CC debt, but a student loan and a small overdraft - little to no other assets beyond a motorscooter, and her boss has just announced a 3-day week. 
3. The RE bot has a thumping mortgage, no rentals, a large Amex balance, two leased vehicles and a few other toys/assets, and the firm has just cut the commission rate by 50%. 

Now, kindly predict the economic effects of this small sample's situation. Then multiply that by a million.....

And here's the real kicker. It's far, far easier to Demolish than to Build.....

Those Canterbury Plains - many centuries of change

All environments are local, and the Canterbury Plains have been through many centuries of vast change - affecting climate, sedimentation, rivers, surface water bodies and of course soils. A quick history:

1. Originally, forest from mountains to sea. Check the Forested Areas map in 'Tangata Whenua'...
2. Extensive 12-13 century burning of the forest cover, as the early Maori chased moas and other forest dwelling grocery items - inducing a much drier east coast climate over the ensuing centuries and leaving remnant bush only in foothills, valleys and isolated patches on the Plains proper.
3. Revegetation - low growth, tussock, spaniards, matagouri
4. Burning round #2 as the early Europeans cleared tussock and began to farm
5. Extensive sheep farms and some minor cropping, but limited by access to water until the race schemes of the 1870's onwards
6. Water races, fed from the Waimak, Kowai, Selwyn, and the foothill streams behind Windwhistle, for reliable stock water. This recharged aquifers as well as providing household water: the races eventually spanned fairly much the entire Plains excepting the dry stony Te Pirita corner. Farming extended to cropping on the deep silt loams where feasible.
7. The irrigation era - wells to 2-300m deep, and then the river-fed canal schemes of recent date. Uses expanded as well - seeds, more and different animals

To think that it is even possible to adjudge climate, river flows, optimal uses, and livelihoods, against such a background of continual change, is quite simply hubris.....some such changes (vegetation cover being a classic example) affect climate very slowly - on a scale of centuries.

The Rush to Judge is not assisted in terms of likely acceptance by the High and Mighty pronouncements from the We Know Best pulpits. There's more than a hint of Millenarian Fever about most of these, and like any other monomaniacal fixations, there's always the awful but (of course unacknowledged) possibility that despite the Perfection of their Vision, they are Quite Wrong.....

A Tale of Two Gabbys

Gabby Hakoops, esteemed slack-key guitarist to the King of Diamonds, stood before the Witchsmeller Pursuivant, accused of playing Gabby Faure's 'After the Dream' instead of the programmed 'Ride of the Valkyries' at a recent State Banquet for the Queen of Hearts.

Hakoops averred that the sheet music was, in his words, 'Pukaroo', that it had been safely stored in a Music Shack with a locked, strong - albeit somewhat rusty yet still impressive - iron front door with many Big Bolts, that Dark Forces in the Land were to blame, and then referred the matter to the Grand Inquisitor.

The latter had returned after a fifteen-second Conflab with his minions, stated that no Dark Forces were involved, and that he 'does not appreciate Frivolous Litigation and can he please have another Inquisition Chamber, as he is perennially Under-Resourced'. He was also heard, sotto voce, to complain that he had not been invited to the State Banquet.

The MinionQuisitors have revealed that, after failing to open the Music Shack's front door despite many repeated attempts to hammer out the weakest-looking Rusty Bolt, they thought to try the Back door. This was not only wide open, but seemed never to have had locks or, indeed, Hinges. They concluded that Starveling Waifs, who may have included a noted Cellist in their number - or perhaps all were wearing Stillettos - to judge by the marks on the floor, may have conducted a rehearsal for a Symphony, which included Gabby Faure's piece, and had left behind the 'After the Dream' music. This was, in their summation, then picked up by the esteemed, but perhaps short-sighted, Hakoops, who then faithfully rendered it in mellifluous slack-key fingerings, to the assembled multitudes at the State Banquet.

As the theme of the Banquet was to have been 'Victory and Livery' - hence the Wagner on the playlist - the rendition of 'After the Dream' completely spoiled the occasion. Not only was the King of Diamonds mortified, but the Queen of Hearts had to endure a mild Inquisition after the Witchsmeller Pursuivant was summoned and immediately smelt Something Fishy. She, we are informed, was Not Amused.

Hakoops has been sentenced to a long gig in a Folk Band in a far-off land over the Edge of the Earth. He departs on the morrow. The Music Shack is currently the subject of demolition and re-build, hopefully, this time, with only one entry, and with code-compliant, non-rusty, Big Bolts. But, being as how it's being rebuilt by the very Minions who assembled the Last Shack, and despite including the very Latest Technology, we are reliably informed that Dark Forces, via the Afeared Five-Eyed Raven, are this very minute Watching and Waiting.....

A Baseline for Wellbeing Accounting

In a scoop, Interest has been made privy to an important advancement in the Wellbeing Accounting space.

All wellbeing measures, to be credible, require a baseline from which to adjudge progress in the various indicators.  This is not easy to establish:  the requirements include solid records, a sufficient sample size, and a time lapse of well over a century to let the noise in the data settle down.  The Department of Statistics has established just such a baseline, and by a novel technique.

There is no immediately usable baseline within New Zealand itself.  It is a young country, records of sufficient size and credibility are sparse, and with rapid rises in population over the century-plus time lapse deemed necessary, data from the early years cannot be taken as being at all representative. Drawing on settled science techniques from other disciplines, infill data from a close and analogous neighbour has been used to establish this baseline.

The data comes from several large Tasmanian organisations.  These meet the stipulated requirements:  records, sample size, and age.  The work involved to shape this data into a form suitable for use in a 21st century public accounting context is substantial:  raw data, as for other disciplines, needs to be viewed with 21st century eyes, rather than be taken at face value or have 19th century concepts of 'wellbeing' simply echoed verbatim .  There have been several streams of work to refine the original records along the alignments mandated by the Wellbeing Budget now being finalised.   These have reached conclusions, and some observations are reported in precis form below.

The Tasmanian data reveals two main threads reported in the quite voluminous records kept at these institutions: falling under the following broad Wellbeing headings.

Social:  the general impression is that social interaction was muted to an extent rarely seen today.  And such interactions as did occur were formal, short, and evidenced high levels of power imbalance.  There is little to no evidence of much informal interaction, and similarly, diversity of gender, race, and religion is minimal.

Environmental:  the records reveal that there was strong self-sufficiency and little reliance on external inputs.  The populations gardened, built using local materials, extended existing, older buildings and generally 'did for themselves'.  Interestingly, and not unlike the present day, they seem to have been subject to tight supervision and control in these activities, albeit of perhaps different types.

The result of this baseline establishment is vital to the Wellbeing Budget which forms the cornerstone of  the forthcoming 2019 Budget.  Current-day soundings are compared to this baseline, and rates of progress can, with some caution, be assessed.  The infill technique, novel but certainly well-established in other settled science, has been a vital instrument for this purpose.  Once again, New Zealand leads the world in placing Wellbeing Growth at the heart of its Governmental activity.

Millenarial Movements

The Historian Norman Cohn, in his 1957 book, The Pursuit of the Millennium: Revolutionary Millenarians and Mystical Anarchists of the Middle Ages, found that Millenarian movements always picture salvation as:

• Collective, in the sense that it is to be enjoyed by the faithful as a collectivity.
• Terrestrial, in the sense that it is to be realized on this earth and not in some other-worldly heaven.
• Imminent, in the sense that it is to come both soon and suddenly.
• Total, in the sense that it is utterly to transform life on earth, so that the new dispensation will be no mere improvement on the present but perfection itself.
• Miraculous, in the sense that it is to be accomplished by, or with the help of, supernatural agencies.

It might have been expected that millenarian thinking would disappear with the Enlightenment and the Age of Reason. But Cohn found that these ideas and the manias they inspired reemerged in the twentieth century’s secular totalitarian and revolutionary movements.

In what could be a description of the Green New Deal (USA), Cohn argued that these movements felt themselves to be engaged in a struggle of unique importance, “different in kind from all other struggles known to history, a cataclysm from which the world is to emerge totally transformed and redeemed…this is the essence of the recurrent phenomenon of revolutionary millenarianism.”

Now tell me that this does not largely describe those young, easily-led, desperate-to-be-Liked Youf who recently lay about various places to draw attention to Weather in 2100.....

The bitter fruit of the 'Personal is Political'

Jeffrey Tucker writes that

"The attempt to turn every subjectively felt personal issue into a collective cause with a collective action has hatched a brutal form of identity politics that has generated no end to social conflict, with vast carnage along the way."

The 60's slogan has morphed into a profoundly divisive attitude, with the predictable result that 

"in practice .. to have as little human contact with others as possible, especially in a business environment. Literally, anyone can be accused and play-it-safe companies would rather toss out the targetted employee rather than risk bad public relations and an unwinnable lawsuit. The toll adds up daily."

How does it all end up?

The demand that we politicize every personal grievance presumes that people only exist as part of groups and those groups must be defined politically and such groupings can be infinitely complex as intersectionality theory demonstrates. One group’s winnings come at the expense of everyone else, and thus does every advance create the conditions for more oppression, disgust, outrage, condemnation, activism, and power grabbing, even as those groups are constantly changing in composition depending on political influence. There is no safety for anyone under this moral code; there is only fear and dread of exposure, and a miserable life overall.

The mathematical futility of long-term climate projections

The entire climate-prediction edifice as currently promoted, is founded on quicksand, as time-series research at LSE demonstrates - the Hawkmoth Effect rules. The issue comes down to several Inconvenient Modelling Facts:

• Complex systems do not generally have the mathematical property of Structural stability. This leads to quite different projections, using the same initial conditions, even if two models differ to a minute degree - the poster at the link graphically illustrates this.
• Models used for projections simplify real phyical processes (for tractability) and make assumptions (for tuning) - both of which cause structural inadequacy by incomplete description of the phenomena being modeled.
• Turbulent/chaotic systems are pointless to model over long time series if accurate projections are expected: each time-slice depends on the output of the former slice as initial conditions and projections thus rapidly depart from sensible physical-result boundaries as model-time progresses
• The real physical world, as best can be gleaned from observation of history, has close-to-absolute boundaries on temperature = +/- 2-3 degrees Centigrade, and two dominant Attractors: Ice Age and InterGlacial. There have been more than enough long-tail (extremely low- probability) perturbations in the past (vulcanism, comet strikes) to supply a record of any vast excursions from these boundaries. The bounds seem to hold, regardless
• The 'Escape from Model-land' LSE paper suggests that consistency with the past, use of long-tail (very low probability) inputs and expert judgement as to model applicability and utility in the first place, is the only way out of Model-Land
• "The utility and decision-relevance of these model simulations must be judged based on consistency with the past, and out-of-sample predictive performance and expert judgement, never based solely on the plausibility of their underlying principles or on the visual “realism” of outputs."

The two turbulent/chaotic systems which climateers attempt to model are, of course, Atmosphere and Ocean. 

Essentially, they are trying to predict the weather on 27 March, 2119, when predicting the weather on 27 April 2019 is clearly a nonsense: a coin-toss or a dartboard are more useful Models. Next weekend's weather - a reasonable prediction is likely. Tomorrow - the prediction will be close to spot-on. 

Models are always wrong, but mostly they are Useful.....except for the Far Future.  Mathematics rules.

Zoning Causes Commutes

 "We must strive to provide employment close to where people live” Parfitt (of Auckland Council) says. “Long commutes place a huge, unproductive strain on both people's quality of life and our transport infrastructure."

Well, the Plannerz insist on separating all sorts of uses by zonerating to the nth degree. No longer can the shopkeeper live in the flat above the store, the temporary construction crew live in a donga at the latest site, the mechanic trade from a three-bay garage at home, or the budding fashion designer sew and trade from the spare bedroom.

Well, at least not legally. In practice, good neighbours, high fences and quiet work habits mean that all this and more activity is happening anyway: people simply can't be arsed dealing with the Clueless Councils and their minionz.

Planning which enforces separation of uses causes Commuting. It's as sad and as simple as that. The RMA was designed to handle incompatible uses by examination of Effects. This doesn't need spatial Zoning to be present, but the Town and Country Planning Actorz simply could not conceive of a future without squiggles on maps.

So here we sit, locked into spatial use-mandates created by unelected bureaucrats, in our cars, mostly at idle, as we transport ourselves, slowly and expensively, to our Place of Work......

Christianity and Islam - the differences

The difference between the Christian and Islamic systems is that the former has had a Reformation, and the latter hasn't. During the course of the schism in Christianity (dating roughly from Luther in 1517 and Henry VIII in 1538 when the Dissolution was ordered) the texts were gradually re-examined over the next couple of centuries, and the Old Testament was largely consigned to the dustbin. Sam Harris (End of Faith) expounds upon this point with his usual enthusiasm.

Islam neither allows any such re-jigging of its texts (that's blasphemy), nor any withdrawal from the Ummah (that's Apostasy). Both have severe penalties. That's why most rational thinkers regard the whole edifice as an oubliette - easy to get down into, impossible to get out of, thus to be avoided. 

This then is the main root of the disquiet about things Islamic: it cuts right across Enlightenment values of self-determination, personal freedom within a polity, and rationality. To be sure, as long as adherents stay within the guardrails set by the wider non-Islamic society, no issues. But unfortunately for that happy prospect, there's the uncomfortable fact that the Islamic texts regard that wider society as infidels, to be converted if possible.

We've largely abandoned Christian evangelism because of its long history of abuses, mis-steps and ultimate futility. So we are not about to embrace a newer, evangelistic, and intensely patriarchic imperialism......

Angelo M Codevilla on the new American Revolution

Two articles, both by Angelo M. Codevilla, both in a distinctly elegiac tone regarding the fate of the USA. His core theory is that a revolutionary threshhold has been crossed, and that what happens next is uncertain in the extreme. The links are in date order, and need to be read in sequence in order to make much sense.

• Short Bio
• After the Republic
• Our Revolution's Logic

Tertiary Funding

In answer to a question about why SIT needs an Auckland branch...

The zero fees model (I was there at the inception) depended on the original bums-on-seats EFTS funding: mo' Bums, Mo' Munny. It's easy to see that, with the injection of an initial capital sum to enable the show to get through the first year or three, the EFTS funding would let it wash its face thereafter provided sufficient bums - er - students - were garnered. The funding came from the community (Mayor Tim had a hand in that), the students came - good advertising, tight cost control and well-delivered courses, and the rest is history. The students, needless to say, came at the expense of competing institutions. And the Auckland branch? It's the same reason as banks used to get robbed - it;s where the Munny (students, carting student per-EFTS funding like little dollar balloons over their heads) is/are.

Of course, it was a classic first-mover-advantage - er - Move. It could not easily be replicated, not least because there were no other tightly knit communities like Southland, prepared to stump up the millions needed to get over that initial hill.

But that explains the Auckland branch.

Oh, and the Management. Well, SIT never got itself embroiled in the wilder reaches of Credential Mania. Unlike, say, Aoraki, which at one point had a Diploma in Aromatherapy on the course list....... never lasted (the course or the institution).....pity the suckers students who Believed....and then Enrolled. Because if yer didn't, ye'd be Larfing yer head off....

A Fly on the Wall of the 9th floor...

An imagined Fly-on-the-wall conversation:  The PM and the FM.

PM:  Granters, I've just come back from talking to those Teachers.  Can't we shake that Money Tree you have, and give them a few raises?  I mean, who's gonna edumicate little Neve if the teachers cannot afford houses in Auckland?  And I'm sure as heck not gonna Buy in Wellers....

FM:  Jace, Jace, Jace.  I'm none too sure it was a brilliant move to munge your schedule and go talk to them in the first place.  Neve, teaching, you've been reading those Signs, haven't you.  You know a good chunk of them were painted by Children at Art period - I've already had Ian LG chewing my ear about Child Labour.  And as for schoolkids being paraded about the streets with signs - I know it is supported by a few Parents but the optics - oh, dear, it really does seem like Child Abuse...You of all people have gotta parrot the Party Line - we cannot fix Nine Long Years of Neglect in a single term oops I mean year.  And I've just had to spend a quarter of a billion on more freakin' Trees, to keep He Who Must Not Be Named away from our throats (golly, that man makes me Quake).

PM:  But Granty-poo, if there's that much in kitty that we can shell out scads of it out to Vol - I mean, you know who - then everyone in the queue - Teachers, Tertiary, Police, Defence, and I'm told MBIE and IRD although I must confess not to have noticed - they went Out too, or something? - where was I, oh yes, everyone in the queue, which seems to be growing daily, can See the dosh getting spread around and I sense that they are getting that FOMO thing - they are worried that the cupboard might be bare soon, and so they wanna get in Now, and with Big Percentages.  Oh, Grant, what are we gonna do?

FM:  Well, we have got the Cullen Tax Grab - I mean, the TWG - working away in the background, and perhaps we could advance the pace a little there.  Don't let this get outside the room, but the TWG is basically a Rich Prick's Squeeze, and all he, I mean They - haveta do is to get the definition of the RP's down low enough that we'll have a few more tens of billions.  Let me have a quiet word.  But please, for Financial Prudence' sake, don't go addressing howling mobs of tax-funded employees.  That's what Unions are for....