Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Massive violence - the solution to 'Inequality'

It's worth slogging yer way through Scheidel's 'The Great Leveller'. Contra to the simplistic strain running through so many comments on economics, which boils down to a Utopian wish for 'policies to reverse inequality', Scheidel's magisterial survey of inequality across several millennia shows two aspects clearly:
  1. Inequality is baked into agrarian (and its later variants including industrial and post-industrial) existence. The need to harvest, store, allocate and secure grains means, even in simple societal arrangements, that there is great opportunity to clip tickets and enrich elites at every step of the chain. So and invariably, societies develop priestly, ruling, military and other top-of-the-tree layers which then and equally invariably, oppress all beneath them. Millennia of histories, in his scholarly account, attest to this.
  2. The only episodes which stop or significantly reverse this trend, are inherently violent. Mass-mobilisation wars, catastrophic pandemics, transformative revolutions, and state collapse are the Four Horsemen - the Great Levellers. Period.
    Finally, and if one was to take seriously the 'population overshoot' espoused by some commenters as the Root of our current Condition, it really just depends on one's tolerance for high body counts.......which Horse to back....
    From the blurb:
    Are mass violence and catastrophes the only forces that can seriously decrease economic inequality? To judge by thousands of years of history, the answer is yes. Tracing the global history of inequality from the Stone Age to today, Walter Scheidel shows that it never dies peacefully. The Great Leveler is the first book to chart the crucial role of violent shocks in reducing inequality over the full sweep of human history around the world. The “Four Horsemen” of leveling―mass-mobilization warfare, transformative revolutions, state collapse, and catastrophic plagues―have repeatedly destroyed the fortunes of the rich. Today, the violence that reduced inequality in the past seems to have diminished, and that is a good thing. But it casts serious doubt on the prospects for a more equal future.

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Pike River - a fatally flawed design mandated by Gubmint

Pike River was at base a Gubmint-enforced faulty design, and any regulatory 'failure' was well downstream of that.
  1. The seam at PRCC sloped upwards, through known-to-be-gassy coal (it's substantially the same as coal found at Brunner and Strongman - both famous historic disasters).
  2. This should have placed a very high design emphasis on excellent mine ventilation.
  3. DoC controls both the surface over the seam (Conservation land) and the outcropping face of the seam (the escarpment is in Paparoa National Park).
  4. A sensible ventilation plan would have been to allow either or both of vertical vents up to surface through overburden, and vents right along the top of the seam straight out to the escarpment. Both would be natural ventilation (methane is lighter than air, and both sets of vents would vent up). As mine roads were driven, they could have been vented up and out, with less mechanical assistance needed and much greater margins of safety.
  5. DoC would allow only one vent hole in its precious Conservation Estate, and would not even consider a vent on the escarpment above the seam.
  6. The one vent allowed was at the lowest point of the coal seam (the least likely place to accumulate and vent methane without yuge mechanical assistance).
  7. This was an inherently flawed design (the Royal Commission could find only one other similar design across the globe, and IIRC That went Boom, too)
  8. It was, in short, an accident waiting to happen, from a design forced by Gubmint intransigence to be fatally deficient.
  9. To be sure, mine management failures were also there. But managing a lemon tends to produce a bitter result regardless.