Thursday, February 11, 2021

A fly on the wall of the 9th floor - 2021.

PM: Granters, we simply Have to Do Something about these house prices. 19% in a year, and much more in some provincial localities. This is gonna Cost us if we don't handle it. What can we Do?

FM: Well, to be perfectly Francis, Jace, you haven't helped the cause by saying out loud that house prices should Keep Going Up. I mean, talk about Mixed Messages. We are gonna try to dampen demand - after all, with fewer immigrants and students, there should be a bit of wiggle room.

PM: But honestly, less demand by whatever method you dredge up, is surely gonna hurt those least able to climb aboard the Property Rocket - I mean, get themselves into an Affordable First Home. Making the minimum deposit Higher strikes directly at them, doesn't it?

FM: Well, yes, but it's more intended for those Awful Speculators, and the banks seem to have taken that to heart already. We are having a little difficulty defining 'speculator'. But I've got the IRS trawling the books, and a team looking through CCTV footage to see who owns those Teslas and Ferraris - there's gotta be some dirty money there. Fingering unloved Rich Pricks always goes down well in the cheap seats - I mean - with our valued Electors.

PM: But all that's gonna take Absolutely Ages, Granters. I've got FHB's besieging most of our Auckland electoral offices, and there's even talk of a Hikoi of the Dispossessed. That's Bad Optics, I need not Remind you. These poor folk need answers Now, else it's another Previa for the next accommodation option. And there's talk, now that the RMA is gonna get trisected, about Councils, their crazy Land policies, and their effects on pricing by causing 'artificial scarcity' - whatever That means. Gosh, having queues outside offices is one thing, but having 70-odd Councils, their elected Councillors and their Staff, all up in arms because we are evidently gonna cut their lucrative Consent, Planning, Inspection and whatever rackets - I mean - Services Revenues, down to size, is altogether another. Can't we promise them some of the Magic Money Tree fruit? Heck, look what it did for He Who Must Not Be Named, while the PGF money tap was flowing. Give them a slice of GST? Make it no GST on Rates? Anything? Granters, you've gone white. Are you OK?

FM: Jace, Jace, Jace. There are many threads to weave here, and the whole sorry mess can't be solved in a day, a year or even a Term. Oh, now You've gone white. Join the club.

Wednesday, February 03, 2021

Steel Wheel Dreaming

 The eternal 'boost Rail' mantra runs into a lot of awkward spatial facts in Godzone.

No rail ever to:

    • West coast SI south of Hokitika, north of Ngakawau
    • West Coast of NI between Helensville and Waitara
    • The entire East Cape region between Gizzy and Opotiki
    • Most inland regions of Marlborough, Tasman, Mackenzie, Queenstown

Rail used to exist but is now gone in:

    • All inland parts of the SI except the Christchurch-Stillwater line
    • Northland north of Whangarei
    • Wairoa-Gisborne
    • Stratford-Ohakune

So 'getting freight onto rail' runs into a lot of Capex, if the objective is to run a spur line to within X km of all population centres having more than Y residents. Which objective, of course, was the original Vogel scheme, a century-and-a-half ago. Most of the discontinued lines never made Cent One over their entire life, and this was at a time when road transport alternatives were traction engines or horses.

It's just a dream (disclosure - I luv choo-choos).....